AGP Executive Report

UN Human Rights: The UN Human Rights Council condemned drone strikes and attacks on civilians in Sudan and extended the mandate of its independent fact-finding mission, calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire. Food Security: With harvest season underway, Sudan’s Food Security and Livelihoods cluster warns nearly 29 million people face acute hunger as attacks on farmland, roads and markets, plus drought and currency-driven price spikes, threaten yields and food access. Conflict & Civilians: Amnesty reports RSF recruitment of children in North Darfur and sexual violence, adding to evidence of grave abuses amid the war. Regional Water & Trade Politics: Ethiopia says any talks on the Blue Nile and Red Sea must reflect its geography and national interests, after Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a declaration on Red Sea governance and Nile water rights. Horn of Africa Security: Ethiopia’s federal forces claim control of Mekelle as fighting with TPLF raises fears of wider regional escalation. Business & Regional Cooperation: Nepal’s Home Minister Sudhan Gurung will visit India for BIMSTEC home ministers’ talks, a reminder of how regional security cooperation can shape cross-border trade and investment.

Red Sea Diplomacy: Egypt’s El-Sisi hosted a quadrilateral summit in New Alamein with Sudan’s Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki and Somalia’s Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, issuing a joint declaration on Red Sea governance, state sovereignty and Nile water rights, while rejecting interference and unilateral actions. Sudan Peace Talks: El-Sisi and Burhan also met directly to push a political settlement, end the war and speed humanitarian relief, with Cairo reiterating support for Sudan’s unity and national institutions. Horn of Africa Security Shock: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray intensified after federal forces seized Mekelle, with drone strikes hitting displaced camps and airstrikes/artillery reported near the city—raising fears of a wider regional conflict that could disrupt trade routes and investment. Humanitarian Strain in Sudan: Reports highlighted RSF drone strikes killing civilians in Dilling and North Kordofan, while Amnesty warned of recruitment and sexual violence risks facing Sudan’s children. Fuel Subsidy Pressure: A separate report flagged that Sudan’s fuel subsidy reform is facing high social and political costs as prices remain under strain. Trade & Investment Links: Egypt signaled efforts to expand trade ties with Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea amid the regional push for economic integration.

Sudan Humanitarian & Rights: Amnesty says RSF recruitment of children in North Darfur includes abduction, forced fighting, sexual violence, and long-term trauma, adding to a war economy that keeps families trapped. Mining Safety & Accountability: Survivors of Sudan’s Al-Zaraa gold mine collapse in West Kordofan say RSF refused rescue help as at least 82 died, raising fresh questions on security and labor protection. Health & Aid: Qatar Red Crescent Society launched a multidisciplinary medical convoy in Sudan, delivering up to 116 free surgeries at Bahri Teaching Hospital and training local staff. Regional Trade & Diplomacy: Egypt is pushing deeper trade ties with Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea after the Alamein summit; bilateral trade with Sudan was about $1.2bn in 2024, and Egypt’s AU trade rose 11.8% to $6.1bn in 7M 2026. Red Sea & Nile Politics: Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia issued the Alamein Joint Declaration on Red Sea governance, sovereignty and Nile “no harm” principles, rejecting unilateral steps. Ethiopia Spillover Risk: Ethiopian forces took full control of Mekelle as TPLF withdrew, while regional rivals met in Egypt to manage fears of a wider Horn-of-Africa conflict.

Humanitarian Health: Qatar Red Crescent Society launched a multi-specialty medical convoy in Sudan, sending a team from Qatar to perform up to 116 free surgeries at Bahri Teaching Hospital over a week, with training for local staff and plans for further convoys in areas like eye care, dialysis and cancer drugs. Sudan War & Civilian Impact: Sudan’s army claimed a “knockout blow” against RSF and SPLM-N in Blue Nile, while separate reports alleged RSF drone attacks on the Blue Nile governor’s residence and civilian sites in Damazin; in North Kordofan, Sudan Doctors Network said more than 25 civilians were executed in Umm Badr, raising fresh calls for independent investigations. Regional Diplomacy & Trade: Egypt hosted a four-way summit in New Alamein with Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan’s de facto leadership as Ethiopia’s Tigray fighting and diplomatic fallout with Eritrea and Egypt raise fears of wider spillovers; Egypt also reported Africa trade up to $6.1bn in seven months and signed cooperation deals with South Africa, Equatorial Guinea and Chad. Horn of Africa Flashpoint: Ethiopian federal forces took full control of Mekelle as TPLF leaders withdrew, while rivals met in Egypt to manage the risk of a broader regional war. Agribusiness Finance: Sudan is set to receive over $100m from the Development Bank of Belarus for 17 grain storage facilities and a Belarusian tractor assembly line, alongside plans for food security, mechanization and transport projects. Defense Industry Watch: Lockheed Martin said it may expand aircraft production in India if it wins a $10.5bn tender for 60 medium transport aircraft, partnering with Tata Advanced Systems.

Horn of Africa diplomacy: Egypt will host a four-way summit in El-Alamein on Sunday bringing together leaders of Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia, with Sudan’s Abdel Fattah al-Burhan expected to attend, as renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray and a widening Ethiopia–Eritrea diplomatic rupture raise fears of a broader regional conflict. Tigray frontlines: Ethiopian federal forces have reportedly entered Mekelle after Tigrayan rebels abandoned the regional capital, with residents warning of security gaps and looting risks. Ethiopia–Eritrea break: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, while Eritrea severed ties, escalating a dispute tied to Red Sea access and regional alliances. Sudan war economy pressure: The EU is moving to target Sudan’s war financing by banning imports of Sudanese gold and restricting exports of mercury and cyanide used in gold extraction. Fuel crunch hits Sudan’s markets: A fuel shortage linked to global disruptions and domestic import limits is driving up prices, disrupting transport and boosting black-market petrol. Business & investment ties: At the Alamein-Africa Business Forum, Egypt’s PM met Tanzania’s VP to discuss port expansion, agriculture cooperation and medical collaboration. Aviation connectivity: Africa is pushing for more direct intra-African flights under the Single African Air Transport Market, aiming to cut costs and reduce reliance on Europe and Middle East hubs.

Red Sea–Horn of Africa Security: A new regional summit in Egypt’s New Alamein is set to bring together Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan’s top leadership as Red Sea access fears rise and Ethiopia’s renewed conflict deepens instability across the corridor. Diplomacy & Trade Links: Egypt’s PM-to-Tanzania talks at the Alamein Africa Forum focused on port expansion cooperation for Dar es Salaam and joint agriculture and medical projects—key for regional logistics and food supply chains. Ethiopia–Eritrea Rift: Ethiopia closed its Asmara embassy and expelled 10 diplomats after a drone strike in Addis Ababa, with both sides trading accusations—raising the risk of spillover into Sudan’s war and wider Horn dynamics. Sudan War Economy: The EU moved to target Sudan’s gold trade by banning imports of Sudanese gold and restricting key chemicals used in extraction, aiming to choke war financing while debate grows over whether sanctions can work without disrupting the networks that profit. Fuel Crunch: Sudan’s fuel shortage is pushing transport and daily business activity to a standstill, driving prices up and expanding black-market sales. North Kordofan Front: Sudan’s army says it seized Al-Mazroub, a step toward cutting RSF supply lines and opening a road into West Kordofan.

Sudan Humanitarian Pressure: Libya’s border town of Kufra is seeing a surge of Sudanese refugees, with registration and healthcare systems under strain as arrivals fluctuate amid security and temporary border closures. Regional Conflict Spillover: Ethiopia’s renewed fighting in Tigray is intensifying fears of a wider Horn of Africa war, with Addis Ababa accusing Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing armed groups while diplomatic ties unravel. Diplomatic Fallout: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea and expelled diplomats; Eritrea reciprocated by severing ties, while Egypt also expelled an Ethiopian diplomat in a tit-for-tat escalation. Security & Illicit Finance: Kenya arrested 14 suspects, including three police officers and foreign nationals, in a fake currency and gold scam raid, highlighting cross-border crime risks. Banking Leadership: Dubai Islamic Bank appointed Fadhel Al Ali as chairman, signaling continued regional expansion and governance focus. Peace Prize Buzz: The International Space Station is among the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 contenders, alongside political and humanitarian names, keeping global attention on conflict and cooperation.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Diplomatic Break: Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats within 48 hours, accusing Asmara of hostile acts as fighting in northern Ethiopia intensifies; Eritrea retaliated by severing all diplomatic ties, raising fresh risks of the Horn conflict spilling across borders. Sudan Humanitarian Strain: As Sudan’s war continues to drive displacement, Libya’s Kufra is seeing hundreds of new refugee registration requests daily, while local healthcare facilities face acute staffing shortages and mounting pressure. Crime & Finance: Nairobi police arrested 14 suspects, including three officers, in a fake currency and gold scam raid, seizing pallets containing counterfeit US$100 notes alongside cement. AU De-escalation Call: The African Union urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise restraint, keep communication channels open, and resolve differences through peaceful dialogue. Sudan’s Bashir Medical Transfer: Ousted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was moved to a military-run hospital in Khartoum for treatment, with his lawyer saying he needs further care abroad. Refugee Education Funding: UNHCR warned that education funding cuts are threatening schooling for millions of refugee children, with secondary enrollment lagging far behind primary.

Sudan Politics & Health: Ousted President Omar al-Bashir has been transferred to a military-run hospital in Khartoum for medical treatment, but his lawyer says he still needs care abroad—while his family claims no official permission has been received yet, keeping his fate uncertain. Humanitarian & Food Security: Sudan’s crisis is worsening as malnutrition cases rise in Darfur, food prices climb in North Kordofan, and fuel shortages disrupt transport and production. Regional Trade & Logistics: Ethiopia’s heavy reliance on the Djibouti corridor is becoming an immediate cost risk as Red Sea disruptions raise insurance and freight delays, threatening fuel, factory inputs and household goods. Red Sea Geopolitics: Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties after explosions in Addis Ababa and accusations of hostile acts, raising fears the conflict could spread across the Horn. Diplomacy & Conflict Spillover: Ethiopia also ordered the closure of its embassy in Eritrea and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, amid claims Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt back TPLF-linked opposition.

Sudan–Ethiopia/Red Sea spillover: Fighting in Ethiopia’s north is intensifying around Alamata, with BBC citing hospital sources that at least 52 civilians were killed over three days, while Addis Ababa and Tigrayan forces trade claims and communications disruptions complicate verification. Regional security & shipping risk: As the Houthis expand along Yemen’s Red Sea approaches, analysts warn the Bab el-Mandeb corridor could face higher disruption risk, with knock-on effects for Red Sea states’ trade and security. Fertilizer supply shock: A UN official warned that continued disruption to fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could worsen food insecurity, citing Sudan and other Gulf-dependent economies where fertilizer reliance is 50%–60%. Sudan politics/health: Ousted President Omar al-Bashir has been transferred to a military-run hospital in Khartoum for medical treatment, but his lawyer says he still needs care outside Sudan, while his family disputes whether formal authorization has been received. Cross-border crime: Kenya’s DCI arrested 13 suspects in Nairobi linked to an international fake gold and counterfeit US dollar syndicate, seizing fake gold bars and large amounts of counterfeit currency. Digital finance & fraud risk: Kenya Power confirmed its customer-care X account was hacked after crypto-related posts appeared, urging customers to use official channels and not share sensitive payment details.

Sudan & Red Sea Security: Sudan’s role in Red Sea stability is back in focus as the Houthis expand control near Bab al-Mandeb, raising risks for shipping and regional economies; Sudan has also stepped up anti-smuggling efforts along the coast. Sudan War & Politics: Sudan’s foreign minister again rejected externally imposed solutions at the UN, while reports continue of drone strikes hitting civilian areas and renewed pressure around RSF/SAF conduct. Humanitarian Funding Crunch: UNHCR warns funding cuts are endangering protection for 8.3 million refugees and displaced people, forcing programme scaling-down. Regional Instability (Horn of Africa): Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict is flaring again after rebel moves, with fears of a wider humanitarian spillover amid El Niño-driven food risks. Business & Livelihoods in Sudan: Young Sudanese displaced by war are turning to entrepreneurship to survive as living costs and job access deteriorate. Diplomacy & Outreach: Somoud, led by Abdalla Hamdok, hired a US consultancy for lobbying and media outreach as it seeks an end to the war. Energy & Trade Signals: Saudi Arabia reiterated Gulf security as “indivisible” and warned of an energy crisis with uncertain outcomes, underscoring how regional security and commodity flows stay tightly linked.

Humanitarian Funding Crunch: UNHCR warns severe funding cuts are threatening protection and aid for 8.3 million refugees and other forcibly displaced people, with its funding falling from $5.2bn (2024) to $3.9bn (2025) and only 32% of the $8.5bn needed received by end-July. Sudan Politics & Diplomacy: Sudan’s Somoud hires a US consultancy for strategic advice, media relations and government affairs as it pushes for an end to the war and a political process ahead of UNGA engagement. Regional Security Tensions: Ethiopia’s renewed fighting in the north risks widening conflict, with its army chief accusing Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing rebels—claims all deny—raising Red Sea corridor concerns. Sudan War’s Economic Strain: Reports highlight how war and insecurity are deepening Sudan’s economic crisis, while traders protest rising taxes and returnees face a capital that remains hard to live in. Gold & Mining Investment (Egypt, spillover relevance): Egypt’s mining sector draws hundreds of millions in planned investment as gold prices top $5,000/oz, with licensing and legal reforms aimed at unlocking under-explored deposits. Climate Risk for Sudan: El Niño-linked extreme heat projections flag Sudan among the hardest-hit Sahel states, with added deaths expected from September 2026 to February 2027.

Sudan Conflict & Diplomacy: Sudan’s foreign minister told the UN it rejects externally imposed solutions and urged an end to weapons, ammunition and fighters flowing into the country, while accusing the RSF of attacks on civilians and medical facilities. UAE Allegations: Sudan also accused the UAE of backing the RSF and worsening the humanitarian crisis, presenting claims of an ongoing supply chain of military hardware. Red Sea Trade Costs: War-risk insurance for tankers linked to Saudi Red Sea ports jumped sharply as attacks near Bab el-Mandeb raised corridor stakes, with premiums rising to around 3% near Yanbu and up to 7% for some southern routes. Refugee Funding Crunch: UNHCR warned nearly 8.3 million displaced people could lose vital protection as funding fell from $5.2bn (2024) to $3.9bn (2025), with only 32% of the 2026 target received by late July. Regional Spillover Risk: Ethiopia’s renewed fighting and accusations involving Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are raising fears the Horn could widen into a broader conflict that intersects with Sudan’s war. Climate Shock for Sudan: El Niño-linked heat and drought risks are projected to hit Sudan hard, with war and damaged infrastructure already pushing much of the population deeper into poverty.

Drone Attack & Civilian Cost: A drone strike hit a crowded market in Ghubaysh, West Kordofan, killing 28 and injuring 23, with witnesses blaming the army after it reportedly first struck an RSF vehicle. UAE–RSF Accusations at UN: Sudan used the UN General Assembly to accuse the UAE of directly supporting the Rapid Support Forces, worsening the humanitarian crisis, and urged RSF disarmament. Sudan Demands No Foreign Interference: Sudan’s foreign minister called for an end to outside meddling and said the US blocked Burhan’s planned UN appearance via visa refusal. Humanitarian Funding Crunch: UNHCR warned nearly 8.3 million displaced people face losing access to aid as severe funding cuts shrink its budget and protection capacity. Food Security Pressure: FAO urged more funding for Sudan’s agriculture and emergency food production as El Niño threatens the Horn, highlighting sorghum and livestock support. Regional Trade & Logistics: Tunisia’s business council plans to use Libya’s Sabha as a logistics and trade gateway for Tunisian goods into markets including Sudan. Energy Integration Watch: Saudi-Egypt electricity interconnection is nearing trial operations, aiming to exchange up to 3,000 MW and support a wider regional power market.

Sudan Peace & Humanitarian Pressure: The UAE used its UNGA address to call for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Sudan and a civilian-led political process, urging both Port Sudan authorities and the RSF to engage with international peace efforts. Sudan Sovereignty vs External Solutions: Sudan’s UN message rejected imposed solutions and external agendas, warning that peace must address root causes and that sanctions have harmed the economy and sovereignty. Refugee Funding Crunch: UNHCR warned nearly 8.3 million forcibly displaced people are at risk of losing UN assistance as “severe” funding cuts erode protection services, with only 32% of needed funds received by July. Regional Security Spillover: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing Tigray rebels amid renewed fighting and town captures, while Sudan’s forces denied the claims. Energy & Costs Watch: Egypt reported major electricity efficiency gains and lower grid losses, cutting fuel consumption equivalent to EGP 70bn—an indirect reminder of how power stability shapes regional business costs. Climate Risk for Economies: A new El Niño warning says extreme heat could drive hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths across the Global South, raising future health and productivity risks.

Sudan–Fuel Supply Shock: Sudan’s Al Jazirah fuel depots at Umm Alila were hit by an RSF-attributed drone attack, with firefighters containing the blaze “in record time,” but officials warned the strike could disrupt fuel availability and transport. Khartoum Return Strain: After the army recaptured Khartoum, about 2.7 million people have returned, yet electricity, water, healthcare and jobs remain unreliable, keeping unemployment high and pushing some families back out. Refugees to Chad: UNHCR says Sudanese crossings into eastern Chad have surged 20-fold, with over 400 people a day arriving, while only 18% of needed funding has been received—raising risks of hunger and onward migration. Ethiopia–Sudan Accusations: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Sudan (and Eritrea, Egypt) of backing Tigray rebels as fighting spreads beyond Tigray into Afar and Amhara, displacing at least 150,000 people. US Visa Rules Affect Sudan Travel: The US says visits to Sudan after March 1, 2011 can strip Visa Waiver Program eligibility, forcing affected travellers to apply for a visa. Regional Trade Watch: Egypt’s food exports topped $5bn in Jan–Aug 2026, with Sudan among key markets, highlighting continued cross-border demand despite regional instability.