AGP Executive Report

Sudan Humanitarian Shock: WFP says an airstrike destroyed two clearly marked food trucks near Dilling in South Kordofan, wiping out over 50 metric tons of supplies meant for about 5,800 people for a month, as the agency records repeated aerial attacks on its operations. Sudan Displacement & Conflict Spillover: UN-linked reporting highlights escalating clashes and displacement across Sudan’s Blue Nile and Kordofan, while broader coverage warns the war’s ripple effects are reaching regional security and migration routes. Sudan Accountability Push: Civil society urges the UN Human Rights Council to extend and adequately fund the Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan, including resources to investigate and preserve material for accountability. Sudan War Economy & Logistics: Commentary argues Europe’s arms-embargo focus on Darfur is outdated for a nationwide war, calling for forensic tracking and dismantling of illicit supply corridors. Nepal Floods, Climate Link: Flash floods triggered by an ice-rock avalanche have killed at least 1,204 and left thousands missing, with leaders pushing for stronger international action on climate-driven mountain risks. Regional Trade & Industry: Egypt and Oman discuss joint industrial zones to deepen supply chains and investment, while Egypt and China align on Nile access and Gaza ceasefire priorities. Sports & Talent Flows: Ghana’s Asante Kotoko leads foreign recruitment ahead of the 2026/27 league season, including a Sudanese midfielder signing.

Sudan Humanitarian Pressure: UN reports about 22,000 people displaced in Sudan’s Blue Nile over the past week as fighting intensifies around Geissan, with families sheltering in schools and shortages of shelter and clean water growing. Darfur & Kordofan Health Crisis: In North Darfur and West Kordofan, aid groups warn of a catastrophic, “forgotten” humanitarian collapse, including malnutrition for thousands of children and a cholera outbreak driving urgent medical needs. Accountability Push: Civil society in Geneva urges the UN Human Rights Council to extend Sudan’s Fact-Finding Mission mandate and fund investigations into grave violations, including follow-up reporting on El Obeid. Education Support for Sudanese: Sharjah’s ruler orders Sudanese students admitted without tuition fees and refunds any nominal fees already collected, easing costs for families affected by the crisis. Regional Politics & Trade Context: Ghana’s President Mahama uses the Non-Aligned Movement summit to call out “selectivity” in global crisis handling, backing stronger enforcement of international law for Sudan and Gaza and renewed attention to humanitarian access.

Sudan Displacement Watch: The UN says about 22,000 people were displaced in Sudan’s Blue Nile state over the past week as fighting intensified around Geissan, with many sheltering in schools or moving toward Ed Damazine. Humanitarian Pressure: OCHA also reports violence and drone strikes in North Kordofan and West Darfur, including attacks on a fuel market near the Chad border that killed and injured civilians and damaged property. Local Livelihoods: In Gezira, farmers are split over newly formed agricultural and livestock associations, with rival alliances rejecting the process and warning of exclusion and regulatory violations—at a time when delayed rains are also threatening food security in North Darfur. Youth & Politics: Sudan’s Youth Parliament has launched a September 2026–September 2028 strategy aimed at grassroots participation to prevent the war’s political divide from hardening into de facto partition. Education Support: In Sharjah, a Sudan-focused initiative will keep Sudanese students in a private school without tuition fees, refunding any fees already collected this academic year.

Sudan Displacement Crisis: The UN warns violence is surging across Sudan, with about 22,000 people displaced in Blue Nile’s Gisan locality over a week, while North Kordofan and West Darfur also report new attacks and civilian harm. Sudan Peace & Governance: Sudan Youth Parliament launched a September 2026–September 2028 strategy, warning that military division could harden into de facto partition unless grassroots groups, youth and women are central to any settlement. Sudan Political Fractures: SPLM-IO faces a fresh leadership fight as Interim Chair Oyet Nathaniel Pierino and Interim Secretary General Regina Joseph Kaba issue rival suspension orders. Regional Peace Financing: At an AU extraordinary session in Luanda, leaders including AU officials and VP Chiwenga urged Africa to fund conflict prevention itself, adopting a “Luanda Plan of Action” with clearer responsibilities and financing. Red Sea Geopolitics: Ethiopia renewed accusations that Egypt is trying to undermine its Red Sea access, including claims about reservoir evaporation losses in Egypt’s downstream storage. Iran Oil Shock: A US naval blockade is reported to have stopped Iranian crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz to China for weeks, tightening foreign-currency pressure that could ripple into regional trade and prices.

Sudan Conflict & Humanitarian Fallout: Drone strikes in El Obeid (North Kordofan) hit markets, schools, fuel and water points, crippling power and water supply; water availability reportedly fell to about a litre per person per day and prices for barrels surged, deepening hardship for residents and displaced families. Return & Reintegration Gap: Khartoum’s growing return of displaced people signals momentum, but the coverage stresses the gap between physical return and real recovery—many still lack reliable electricity, clean water, healthcare, housing, schooling and safety. Sanctions & Trade Controls: A U.S. update flags tighter export restrictions and heightened scrutiny for Sudan, with companies warned that rules can shift quickly and that transactions involving Sudan face rising compliance risk. Agriculture Investment Debate: A new analysis argues Sudan should move from fragmented, project-by-project farming investments toward integrated models that reconnect recovery with markets, land rights, institutions and safeguards. Regional Peace Agenda: AU leaders meeting in Luanda urged stronger African-led conflict prevention and financing, pointing directly to Sudan as a key test case for implementation, not just plans. Security Allegations: An Israeli report claims a senior RSF commander linked to Hemedti made secret visits to Israel, amid ongoing sanctions over alleged abuses.

Sudan War & Red Sea Security: A Century Foundation report says Sudan—especially Port Sudan—is evolving into a logistics and financing hub for Iran-linked Houthi military networks, including possible training of Sudanese forces and use of Iranian drones and radar. AU Conflict Prevention: At an AU summit in Luanda, AU leaders pushed for stronger, African-led peace and security mechanisms, citing Sudan’s war as a spreading risk across the Sahel and beyond. Khartoum Return Strain: Khartoum’s recovery remains slow as returnees face housing, water, health and livelihood gaps, with power cuts and rising prices still choking daily business activity. Humanitarian & Civilian Infrastructure: UN-linked reporting highlights drone strikes in El Obeid disrupting markets, water and power, driving water scarcity and sharp price hikes for displaced families. Women’s Safety & Arms Control: The US backs expanding Darfur’s arms embargo to cover all Sudan, arguing weapons flows directly worsen risks for women and civilians. Regional Trade Note: Egypt exported about 172,000 tonnes of food products while importing about 218,000 tonnes in the week, with Sudan among the top destinations—an indicator of ongoing regional food trade despite instability. Maritime Security: Somalia’s authorities dispute claims about the rescue of a cargo ship from pirates, underscoring renewed piracy risk off the Horn and Gulf of Aden—important for Red Sea shipping costs and supply chains.

Sudan Remittances Push: Sudan’s Ministry of Finance is finalising an electronic payment framework to link with mobile banking in Saudi Arabia, aiming to route Gulf transfers through regulated channels and boost official foreign-exchange inflows as war weakens the economy. Khartoum Recovery Reality: Returnees in Khartoum face persistent power and water cuts, unemployment, rising prices and disrupted services, with movement still constrained after years of conflict. Arms Embargo Debate: The US is urging the UN Security Council to expand the Darfur arms embargo to cover all of Sudan, arguing it could reduce violence against civilians—while activists warn the stakes are especially high for women’s safety and freedom of movement. Regional Spillover Warning: The US and the African Union warned against any regional expansion of Sudan’s war after reports of Sudanese air strikes inside Chad, calling for restraint and updated sanctions. AU Peace Architecture: At the AU Extraordinary Summit in Luanda, leaders—including Namibia’s Nandi-Ndaitwah—focused on strengthening conflict prevention and resolution, with calls for early warning and sustainable financing.

Sudan Economy & Finance: Khartoum is gradually easing daily restrictions, lifting the two-year curfew as authorities push to restart economic activity, though power cuts, checkpoints and insecurity still shape livelihoods. Remittances & Banking: Sudan’s Ministry of Finance is finalising an electronic payments framework to link with mobile banking in Saudi Arabia, aiming to route Gulf transfers through regulated channels and boost foreign-exchange inflows as war weakens the economy. Women, Arms & Peace: The US-backed push to extend Darfur’s arms embargo to all of Sudan is framed as a women’s safety issue, with activists warning that weapon flows fuel violence and restrict women’s movement and work. Regional Security: The US and African Union warned against spillover after reports of Sudanese air strikes inside Chad, urging updated UN sanctions and stronger regional cooperation to prevent cross-border escalation. AU Diplomacy: President John Dramani Mahama arrived in Luanda for the AU summit focused on conflict prevention and resolution, with Sudan among the key security backdrops.

Khartoum Economic Reopening: Sudan lifted Khartoum’s two-year curfew and state of emergency, aiming to restore normal life and restart livelihoods, though residents still face checkpoints and power blackouts. AU Conflict-Prevention Push: President John Dramani Mahama arrived in Luanda for the AU’s 21st Extraordinary Session, where leaders will agree on an Action Plan and Implementation Matrix to strengthen conflict prevention and resolution, with Sudan highlighted among key flashpoints. Darfur Security Spillover: Reports say a UAE-linked private mercenary network (“Desert Wolves”) deployed Colombian veterans to support RSF in Darfur, raising new risks for regional stability and business confidence. Hydropower Worker Missing: In Nepal, families of hydropower workers missing after the Rasuwa floods say they’ve been waiting nearly five days, underscoring how disaster disruptions can hit energy projects and supply chains. Qatar Livestock Growth: Al Anaam opened 16 new branches in Qatar in H1 2026 and reported 30% sales growth, signaling continued expansion in the Gulf food and meat market. Falcon Trade Season: Souq Waqif’s falcon sales jumped about 60% ahead of Qatar’s migratory bird hunting season, with traders expecting more shipments from regional suppliers. Sudan’s Date Palms Under Threat: Drought and wildfires are damaging thousands of date palm trees in Northern State, threatening farmers’ incomes and local food security.

Khartoum Normalization Push: Sudan’s military-led government lifted Khartoum’s two-year curfew and state of emergency, reopening the main airport and urging businesses and embassies back, but residents still face looting damage and constant power blackouts blamed on alleged RSF drone attacks and lack of repair funds. Border War Spillover: Chad reported a deadly airstrike near the Sudan border that hit a market in Adikong, killing at least 12; the attack is tied to fuel supply for RSF, underscoring how the conflict is widening beyond Sudan. Darfur Market Strike: Western Darfur officials accused SAF of a drone strike on the Adekong weekly market, killing and injuring dozens and warning repeated attacks could disrupt cross-border trade and humanitarian access via the Adré corridor. UN Sanctions Debate: Massad Boulos proposed expanding the Darfur arms embargo to all Sudan, explicitly covering drones and related tech, and strengthening the sanctions panel—while Russia and China resist broader measures. Foreign Mercenaries in Darfur: A Financial Times report says UAE-linked contractors deployed about 2,000 Colombian mercenaries to support RSF, providing technical support during the siege and capture of El Fasher.

Khartoum Reset: Sudan lifted Khartoum’s two-year curfew and state of emergency, reopening the main airport and urging businesses and embassies back as more than 2 million displaced people have returned since fighting ended in March 2025; Power Crunch: residents still face constant blackouts blamed on RSF drone attacks on the electricity grid and lack of funds for repairs; Border Trade Under Fire: SAF was accused of a drone strike on the Adekong border market in West Darfur, killing and injuring dozens and threatening cross-border commerce and aid routes; Regional Spillover: Chad accused SAF of an airstrike inside Chadian territory targeting RSF reinforcements, while the US called for an end to external support and urged a wider UN arms embargo; Sanctions Push: the US is seeking to expand the Darfur arms embargo to cover all Sudan, including drones, as Russia and China signal resistance; Foreign Mercenaries: a Financial Times investigation alleges UAE-linked contractors deployed about 2,000 Colombian mercenaries to support RSF in Darfur, raising new accountability pressure.

Khartoum Normalization: Sudan lifted Khartoum’s two-year curfew and state of emergency, reopening the main airport and urging businesses and embassies back, but residents still face looting damage and severe power blackouts blamed on grid targeting and lack of repair funds. Humanitarian Funding Pressure: UNHCR scaled back its 2027 budget by 16% and cut planned headcount by about 3,500 as displacement is set to hit record levels, warning of real service reductions amid funding shortfalls. Power Crisis in Daily Life: Reuters reports worsening electricity outages across army-controlled areas, freezing household and small-business work and pushing families toward costly coping options like generators and take-out. Arms Embargo Push: The US is seeking to expand the Darfur arms embargo to cover all Sudan, including drones and related components, as Russia and China signal resistance and the Darfur mandate nears expiry. Darfur Atrocity Accountability: A Financial Times investigation alleges foreign mercenaries, including Colombian contractors recruited via an Abu Dhabi firm, provided technical support to RSF during the El Fasher siege, raising fresh calls for accountability. Food Supply Shock: Save the Children warns higher oil costs from Middle East conflict could cut aid delivery for 1.5m children worldwide as logistics expenses rise. Cross-Border Tensions: Chad accused Sudan’s forces of an airstrike on a fuel market near the border that killed 12, while the US urged an end to external support and warned the war could spill further. Medicube Recall Watch: Singapore’s HSA said Medicube can resume sales of unaffected batches of a capsule cream after testing found banned Sudan IV dye only in two batches, with affected lots recalled and further batch testing required.

Cross-border security: Chad says a Sudanese air strike hit a fuel market near the Sudan border, killing at least 12 and wounding seven, as Washington warns the Sudan war could spill across borders. Khartoum curbs eased: Sudan lifted Khartoum’s two-year curfew and a state of emergency, but kept checkpoints and patrols, while tightening entry rules for foreign nationals. Media under pressure: A journalist in Berber was arrested over “fake news” after posting criticism of an SAF-aligned Islamist faction, highlighting growing risks for reporting inside the war. Arms embargo push: The US is backing a Sudan-wide UN arms embargo as Russia and China resist, while diplomats also debate broader enforcement of the Arms Trade Treaty. Food and trade ripple: With Black Sea wheat exports disrupted, Baltic grain demand is rising, including interest from Sudan; prices are climbing as global supply worries grow. Famine signals in Kordofan: The Kordofan Observatory warns of imminent hunger as fighting disrupts trade and families turn to costly ambaz.

UN Security Council Arms Embargo Push: The US is urging a Sudan-wide UN arms embargo, including drones and related tech, as Russia and China resist and Sudan pushes back—amid intensifying fighting and fears of deeper hunger. Humanitarian Alarm in Kordofan: The Kordofan Observatory warns of imminent famine in parts of El Nahud, Wad Banda, El Khuwei and Muglad, where families are turning to ambaz as millet prices soar and trade routes and aid access are disrupted by clashes. Food Crisis Pressure: WFP tells the UN Security Council that conflict and fuel/trade disruptions are driving Sudan’s food costs up nearly 40% since February, warning action is needed before famine is declared. War, Water and Farming Collapse: AFP reports Nile water levels are dropping sharply due to El Nino and war-linked supply shocks, leaving farmland fallow and farmers struggling to irrigate. Cross-Border Military Spillover: Chad has reopened scrutiny after airstrikes near the Sudan-Chad border, raising questions about the growing role of foreign drone support in Sudan’s aerial warfare. Debt and Borrowers’ Club: UNCTAD urges African countries, including Sudan, to endorse the Borrowers’ Club to strengthen collective leverage in sovereign debt management. Business/Trade Signal: Wheat prices rally as Black Sea exports stall, with Sudan and Morocco reopening markets to French wheat.

Sudan Hunger Watch: The WFP warned that conflict and global fuel/trade disruptions are pushing Sudan deeper into hunger, with basic food costs up nearly 40% since February—urging action before famine is formally declared. Sanctions Push: The US is urging the UN Security Council to expand a Sudan-wide arms embargo, including drones and related tech, as Russia and China resist and Sudan’s side pushes back. Local Market Disruption: In Kassala, gold traders shut their shops for a second day amid clashes and complaints about itinerant sellers driving an unregulated parallel market. Political Process Signals: Sudan’s Radical Change Forces’ Alliance says it has been in contact with the Quintet and the UN envoy, but insists those talks do not grant any external party a mandate to represent it. Health Crisis on the Ground: In South Darfur’s Rahad Al-Bardi, three women died after obstructed labour cases couldn’t be treated locally as the hospital remained out of service and referrals to Nyala became a deadly journey.

Sudan Sanctions Push: The US urged the UN Security Council to expand the arms embargo on Sudan from Darfur to the whole country, explicitly covering drones and related tech, and to tighten enforcement against external backers of the SAF and RSF—though Russia and China signaled resistance. Kassala Gold Market: Gold traders in Kassala shut shops for a second day amid clashes, accusing itinerant sellers of fueling an unregulated parallel market and manipulating weights and invoices. Health Crisis in Darfur: A hospital closure in South Darfur left pregnant women and other patients unable to reach care; three women died after obstructed labour cases were referred long distances to Nyala. Diplomacy & Peace Process: Sudan’s Radical Change Forces’ Alliance says it has been in contact with the Quintet and the UN envoy, but insists external parties have no mandate and that any settlement must be Sudan-led. Global Food Pressure: UN officials warned a “triple chokepoint crisis” (Hormuz, Red Sea, Black Sea) is driving up food and fuel costs, with Sudan among the most exposed. US Visa Shock: The Trump administration ordered visa applications on hold worldwide, a move expected to sharply cut visas issued—after past pauses saw student visas drop by 36%.